WASHINGTON (AP)– President Donald Trump likes to describe the state of the union as he desires it to be, not how it really is.
In everyday remarks, he consistently pumps up the magnitude of what he’s done, grandly claiming, for example, that he’s “produced the best economic success in the history of our nation.” Or he’ll rewrite a campaign pledge on the spot– asserting he never ever implied Mexico will pay for his border wall directly; “certainly they’re not going to write a check.”
The State of the Union address, however, is a different types than a lot of political rhetoric and a whole various animal than Trump’s visceral tweets. It’s carefully prepared, thematic in nature and light on raw, “lock-her-up” partisanship. Those examples are likely to be reflected in Trump’s speech to Congress on Tuesday night.
Still, Trump’s State of the Union speech a year ago roamed from truth.
He inaccurately explained his tax cuts as the biggest ever (they were perhaps the 8th largest) and hailed rising wages “finally” although they rose more under President Barack Obama in2016 He wrongly explained the visa lottery program as one that “randomly hands out green cards with no regard to skill, merit or the safety of our individuals,” when it really needs education or experience and comprehensive background checks.
A guide to separating reality from fiction on subjects Trump is expected to address in Tuesday night’s speech:
STATE OF NATIONAL SECURITY
In Trump’s eyes, his national security achievements are on a grand scale, probably “the most significant,” ″ historical” or including opponents entirely “beat.” Even when they’re truly not.
Just days prior to his speech to Congress, U.S. intelligence chiefs flatly contradicted their boss on what’s going on in North Korea, Syria and Iran, deflating a story he certainly wishes to tell the country Tuesday.
They stated North Korea is not likely to offer up nuclear weapons and the Islamic State stays harmful, while Iran has respected the regards to the nuclear deal it struck with world powers. That pushes back against Trump’s more benign view of North Korea as a state ready to deal on denuclearization, versus his statements of triumph versus IS, and against his representation of the Iran nuclear deal as a sop to Tehran.
In response, Trump stated his “naive” national intelligence, CIA and FBI chiefs should maybe “return to school!”
It is real that North Korea has actually not carried out nuclear or missile tests since Trump’s really historical conference with leader Kim Jong-Un in June. However the North has actually continued to establish both nuclear and rocket innovation, according to reports from private experts and believe tanks. More notably, the two sides are still far apart on what denuclearization indicates and have actually been not able to settle on next steps. Although a second summit has been agreed upon, no date or venue has actually been announced.
More broadly, any president’s dream is to stand prior to the country and mention soldiers getting home in success. The truths are getting in the way of that for Trump.
In a Dec. 19 tweet, Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Syria, stating they would begin leaving “now.” Over the previous month, nevertheless, Trump and others have appeared to change the timeline, and U.S. authorities have recommended it will most likely take several months to withdraw forces. The Pentagon, the CIA and others in the nationwide security structure say IS stays a lethal risk regardless of its territorial losses.
STATE OF MIGRATION
Trump likes to state there’s a crisis including unlawful migration and just a wall can fix it. Drugs, wrongdoers and terrorists are pouring into the nation without one, he declares– and claims Democrats oppose border security.
Take it all with a grain of salt.
” CONSTRUCT A WALL & CRIMINAL ACTIVITY WILL FALL!” Trump tweeted repeatedly in recent weeks. He’s also said: “Wish to, at last, put an end to stoppable criminal activity and drugs!”
His claims that people in the country unlawfully are an unique threat to public security is at chances with numerous research. Numerous research studies have actually found that people in the U.S. unlawfully are less most likely to devote criminal activity than U.S. citizens.
A wall also can’t do much about drugs, when trafficking is concentrated at land ports of entry, not remote stretches of the border that could be walled off.
Couple of would argue that a humanitarian crisis is unfolding, as the demand for entry by migrants and the Trump administration’s hardline reaction to them are overwhelming border resources.
But a national security crisis? Trump has overemphasized the issue by repeatedly promoting the discredited notion that terrorism suspects are putting into the U.S. from Mexico by the thousands.
Regarding Democrats, it would not be accurate to say, as Trump performed in his Jan. 8 primetime TELEVISION address, that they “will not money border security.” They just will not fund it the way he wants, declining his demand for $5.7 billion to build part of a steel wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Democrats passed legislation the day they took control of the House that offered $1.3 billion for border security, including physical barriers and innovation along the southern border. Senate Democrats have authorized comparable financing every year. In recent weeks, Democrats in both chambers have actually provided strategies to supply billions of brand-new dollars for border security procedures besides a wall.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY
It’s his typical retort when inquired about the prospect of impeachment introduced by Democrats over his legal debates: Look at the economy and jobs market.
” Do you impeach somebody because he developed the biggest financial success in the history of our country?” Trump asked the day after Republicans lost control of your house in November. He recently included via Twitter: “The Economy is one of the very best in our history, with joblessness at a 50 year low.”
In fact, the economy is healthy but not one of the best in history. Also, there are indications it is weakening after a spurt of development in 2015.
The economy broadened at a yearly rate of 4.2 percent in the 2nd quarter in 2015. That was the very best proving under Trump and the highest in 4 years. In the late 1990 s, development topped 4 percent for 4 straight years and even reached 7.2 percent in 1984.
Practically all independent financial experts expect slower growth this year as the effect of the Trump administration’s tax cuts fade, trade stress and slower international growth hold back exports, and greater rates of interest make it more pricey to obtain to buy cars and homes.
On jobs, Trump often indicates a jobs market that is shattering records, including unemployment for African-Americans. He’s overemphasizing it in many cases and taking unnecessary credit.
It’s real that more people are working now, however that is due to the fact that of population development. A more relevant measure is the proportion of Americans with jobs, which is still far below record highs.
According to Labor Department information, 60.7 percent of individuals in the United States 16 years and older were operating in December. That’s listed below the all-time high of 64.7 percent in April 2000, though greater than the 59.9 percent when Trump was inaugurated in January 2017.
Black unemployment did reach a record low, 5.9 percent, in May. However that figure is unpredictable on a regular monthly basis. That rate has because edged up to 6.8 percent in January, potentially in part since of the government shutdown, which elevated joblessness last month. That’s still almost double the out of work rate for whites, at 3.5 percent. On the other hand, the typical income last year for an African-American family was $40,258, according to the Census Bureau. That’s below a 2000 peak of $42,348 And there are multiple indications that the racial wealth gap is getting worse.
STATE OF HEALTH CARE
What a distinction a year makes. From anticipating that the Affordable Care Act would “implode” and “blow up,” Trump now regularly declares credit for stable premiums under the health law. He’s most likely to keep duplicating it, even though he’s incorrect.
” The average benchmark exchange premium will decline for the very first time in 2019 thanks to President Trump’s policies,” states a Jan. 20 White House information sheet, describing the marketplace exchanges established under “Obamacare.”
Actually, in his very first year in office, Trump tried unsuccessfully to rescind the health law, then rescinded a major insurance provider aid, activating a wave of premium increases.
Specialists say the primary reason for the flip in Obamacare’s fortunes is that the premium increases of previous years permitted insurance providers to go back to success. About 9 in 10 Obamacare clients get aids that are created to increase with the increasing expense of insurance coverage, safeguarding them from rate dives. Those taxpayer-backed aids permitted the insurance companies to stanch their earlier losses.
Trump likewise likes to indicate his administration’s new health insurance choices. Short-term strategies and association plans use lower premiums than Cost effective Care Act strategies however they don’t have to offer the exact same comprehensive advantages. Short-term strategies don’t need to cover pre-existing conditions. The schedule of lower-cost options is not going to “drive down” costs for ACA strategies however may actually increase premiums for robust coverage if fewer healthy individuals take it as an outcome.
Expect the president to acknowledge the service of soldiers and veterans. He typically overemphasizes what he’s done for them.
Among his oft-repeated claims is that he offered U.S. troops “the first” or “the most significant” pay raise in a years. In fact, U.S. military members have gotten a pay raise every year for decades. Too, a number of in the last 10 years have been bigger than service members are getting now– 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent in2019 Raises in 2008, 2009 and 2010, for instance, were all 3.4 percent or more.
As well, he discusses being the very first president in “years” to get Congress to authorize the Veterans Choice private-sector health program, when he isn’t.
Obama was the first, following a 2014 scandal at the Phoenix Veterans Affairs medical center. Trump typically says that veterans will now get more “choice” in picking outdoors physicians if they withstand long waits for VA physicians, pledging adequate money to offer veterans the care they need.
That remains highly questionable. The VA has yet to fix long-lasting funding due to congressional budget plan caps after the White House opposed brand-new money to spend for the program, saying it would be fiscally risky. As a result, legislators could be forced later on this year to slash core VA or other domestic programs.
Associated Press writers Christopher Rugaber, Colleen Long, Jill Colvin, Robert Burns, Matthew Lee and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar in Washington and Elliot Spagat in San Diego added to this report.
Drug Enforcement Administration report on cross-border trafficking: https://www.dea.gov/documents/2018/10/02/2018- national-drug-threat-assessment-ndta
CATO report on immigrants and crime: https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/their-numbers-demographics-countries-origin
Discover AP Truth Checks at http://apne.ws/2kbx8bd
Follow @APFactCheck on Twitter: https://twitter.com/APFactCheck