WASHINGTON (AP)– President Donald Trump overemphasized hazards at the border, flubbed food stamp numbers and the length of wars and informed partial facts on drug prices in his State of the Union speech. Trump also celebrated a couple of workforce measures that have little to do with him and practically whatever to do with a growing population.
In her Democratic response to the speech, Stacey Abrams showed a current and deceptive talking point by her party when she knocked the Trump administration for selecting to “cage kids” at the border, disregarding a practice likewise used by the Obama administration to hold migrant children in centers with chain-link fencing.
Here’s a look at a few of the statements from State of the Union night:
TRUMP: “All Americans can be happy that we have more women in the workforce than ever in the past.”
TRUMP: “More people are working now than at any time in the history of our nation. One hundred fifty-seven million people at work.”
THE TRUTHS: Yes, but that’s because the population has grown. It’s more than doubled given that 1950 and, in current months, it’s been increasing by 150,000 to almost 200,000 monthly.
Births are the primary driver of population growth, with migration also contributing. In 2030, that’s expected to change, with migration surpassing the natural increase from births exceeding deaths.
As for women, the big concern is whether higher percentages of them are working or browsing for a job than at any point in history. And on this count, females have actually enjoyed better times.
Women’s manpower participation rate today is 57.5 percent, according to the Labor Department. The rate has actually ticked up just recently, however it was greater in 2012 and peaked in 2000 at roughly 60 percent.
In General, 63.2 percent of Americans are working or looking for work. That’s a couple of ticks greater than when Trump was inaugurated, when it was 62.9 percent, however far below the 2000 peak of 67.3 percent. The rate has actually declined partially due to the fact that of aging, as a wave of infant boomers retire, however even among younger workers it’s below where it was almost two decades ago.
TRUMP: “The border city of El Paso, Texas, utilized to have very high rates of violent criminal activity, among the highest in the entire nation and thought about one of our nation’s most hazardous cities. Now, instantly upon its building, with an effective barrier in place, El Paso is one of the safest cities in our nation. Merely put, walls work and walls save lives.”
THE TRUTHS: That’s a distorted picture of El Paso, where Trump is going to showcase his push for a border wall.
El Paso has never ever been thought about among the nation’s most hazardous cities. In fact, its murder rate was less than half the nationwide average in 2005, the year prior to the start of its border fence. The city has experienced ebbs and flows in violent criminal activity but they have mostly mirrored national trends and been under nationwide averages for decades.
TRUMP: “The lawless state of our southern border is a hazard to the safety and security and monetary wellness of all America.”
THE TRUTHS: Whether the border is adequately protected or not cuts to the core of a heated national debate, however it’s far from lawless. The variety of individuals arrested for crossing unlawfully has plunged in the last years and is near its least expensive level given that the mid-1990 s, illustrating a significant down trend in the number of migrants attempting to slip in. Border Patrol personnel, detection technology and physical barriers have actually increased because time.
DO WALLS WORK?
TRUMP: “These (border) agents will tell you where walls increase, illegal crossings go way, method down … San Diego utilized to have the most unlawful border crossings in our nation. In action, a strong security wall was put in place. This effective barrier practically completely ended prohibited crossings … Basically, walls work and walls save lives.”
THE FACTS: It’s a lot more complicated than that.
Yes, Border Patrol arrests in the San Diego sector dropped 96 percent from almost 630,000 in 1986 to barely 26,000 in 2017, a duration throughout which walls were built. However the crackdown pressed prohibited crossings to less-patrolled and more remote Arizona deserts, where thousands passed away in the heat. Arrests in Tucson in 2000 almost matched San Diego’s peak.
Critics state the “water-balloon impact”– construct a wall in one spot and migrants will discover an opening in other places– weakens Trump’s argument, though advocates state it just shows that walls must be extended.
The Government Responsibility Workplace reported in 2017 that the U.S. has actually not developed metrics that show how barriers have added to surround security.
TRUMP: “I desire people to come into our nation in the biggest numbers ever however they need to be available in lawfully.”
THE TRUTHS: His policy recommendations to date do not reflect this wish.
The strategy he proposed upon taking office would have sharply limited the capability of people and permanent citizens to bring in household, which he derisively called “chain migration.” The Cato Institute, which favors more open migration policies, approximated his strategy would cut the variety of legal immigrants by approximately 44 percent, the largest cut to legal immigration considering that the 1920 s.
According to information from the Homeland Security Department, about 750,000 of more than 1.1 million individuals who acquired permits in 2017– or two-thirds– did so through household relations. Trump’s plan called for limiting family-based permits to partners and minor kids of U.S. citizens and green card holders, a significant cut. He’s likewise slashed the number of refugees the U.S. will accept for 2 straight years and he wishes to remove variety visas.
He’s spoken about changing to merit-based, instead of family-based, immigration and stated at times that he wishes to make it much easier for short-term workers to work and graduates from top colleges to remain in the nation. However scientists have said the net impact of his proposals would be less legal immigrants.
MIDDLE EAST WARS
TRUMP: “Our brave soldiers have now been combating in the Middle East for practically 19 years.”
THE TRUTHS: Trump exaggerated the length of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan began in October 2001, in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. The invasion of Iraq was in March2003 The U.S. has been at war for a bit more than 17 years.
Also, he refers to combating in the Middle East. Iraq remains in the Middle East, however Afghanistan is in central Asia.
TRUMP, describing development over the last two years: “Almost 5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps.”
THE REALITIES: The number of people receiving food stamps actually hasn’t declined that much.
Government information reveal there were 44.2 million individuals taking part in the Supplemental Nutrition and Assistance Program in 2016, before Trump took office. In 2018, there were 40.3 million people participating in BREEZE. That’s a decrease of 3.9 million, not the 5 million that Trump spoke about.
The number of people taking part in the BREEZE program peaked in 2013 and has been going down because that time.
Trump’s last spending plan proposed cutting BREEZE by $213 billion over 10 years. The administration likewise has actually been pushing to give states more versatility in implementing the program, including tightening work requirements for recipients.
ABRAMS: “The Republican tax bill rigged the system against working people. Rather than restoring jobs, plants are closing, layoffs are looming and earnings battle to keep pace with the real expense of living.
THE TRUTHS: The economy is doing much better after the intro of Trump administration’s tax cuts than Abrams suggests. The variety of people looking for unemployment advantages, a proxy for layoffs, briefly fell to a five-decade low last month. And typical hourly pay is running ahead of inflation.
TRUMP: “We recently enforced tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese products– and now our treasury is getting billions of dollars.”
THE REALITIES: This is deceptive. Yes, money from tariffs is going into the federal treasury, however it’s mostly originating from U.S. organisations and consumers. It’s not foreign nations that are paying these import taxes by cutting a check to the government.
His recommendation to cash coming into the treasury “now” belies the fact that tariffs go back to the founding of the country. This earnings did not start with his increased tariffs on some goods from China.
Tariffs did produce $413 billion in tax incomes in the last budget year, according to the Treasury Department. But that is a small fraction of a federal spending plan that goes beyond $4.1 trillion.
The tariffs paid by U.S. business also tend to lead to higher rates for customers, which is what took place for cleaning machines after the Trump administration enforced import taxes.
TRUMP: “Our new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement– or USMCA– will replace NAFTA and provide for American employees: restoring our production tasks, broadening American farming, protecting intellectual residential or commercial property, and ensuring that more cars and trucks are proudly stamped with the four gorgeous words: MADE IN THE USA.”
THE FACTS: It’s unlikely to do all those things, because the brand-new contract mostly maintains the structure and substance of NAFTA. In addition, the deal has actually not been validated and its possibilities in Congress doubt.
In one new function, the deal needs that 40 percent of automobiles’ contents become made in nations that pay autoworkers a minimum of $16 an hour– that is, in the United States, or Canada, however not in Mexico. It likewise needs Mexico to pursue an overhaul of labor law to encourage independent unions that will plan on higher salaries and better working conditions for Mexicans.
Still, simply prior to the agreement was signed, General Motors announced that it would lay off 14,000 employees and close five plants in the United States and Canada.
Philip Levy, senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a trade official in Republican politician President George W. Bush’s White House, says: “President Trump has seriously overhyped this arrangement.”
TRUMP: “Already, as an outcome of my administration’s efforts, in 2018 drug costs experienced their single largest decline in 46 years.”
THE TRUTHS: Trump is selectively pointing out data to exaggerate what seems to be a downturn in prices. A wider take a look at the information shows that drug prices are still rising, but more moderately. Some independent professionals state criticism from Trump and congressional Democrats may be triggering pharmaceutical companies to reveal restraint.
The Customer Price Index for prescription drugs reveals a O. 6 percent decrease in prices in December 2018 when compared to December 2017, the biggest drop in nearly 50 years. The government index tracks a set of medications consisting of brand drugs and generics.
However, that same index showed a 1.6 percent boost when comparing the full 12 months of 2018 with the whole previous year.
” The annualized number provides you a better image,” stated economist Paul Hughes-Cromwick of Altarum, a nonprofit research organization. “It might be that something wacky occurred in December.”
Individually, an analysis of brand-name drug rates by The Associated Press shows there were 2,712 cost boosts in the first half of this January, as compared with 3,327 increases during the same period in 2015.
The size of this year’s increases was not as pronounced. Both this year and last, the variety of price cuts was small. The information for the analysis was supplied by the health information firm Elsevier.
TRUMP: “Incomes are increasing at the fastest speed in decades, and growing for blue collar workers, who I assured to eliminate for, they’re growing quicker than anyone else thought possible.”
THE TRUTHS: This is an unsupported declaration due to the fact that the data on hourly incomes for private workers only return to 2006, not years.
However data on incomes for production workers go back to 1939– and Trump’s claim seems unproven.
Typical hourly revenues for production and nonsupervisory workers are up 3.4 percent over the previous year, according to the Labor Department. Those wage gains were higher as recently as early2009 And they were balancing approximately 4 percent before the start of the Great Recession in late 2007.
There are other methods to track wage gains– and those do not operate in Trump’s favor, either.
Changed for inflation, average weekly incomes increased just 0.6 percent in2018 The gains in weekly wages were 2.1 percent in 2015.
ABRAMS, in the Democratic action: “We understand bipartisanship could craft a 21 st century migration strategy but this administration chooses to cage children and tear families apart.”
THE REALITIES: The cages that Abrams points out are in fact chain-link fences and the Obama administration used them, too.
Kids are held behind them, inside holding Border Patrol centers, under the Trump administration. Also, Obama’s administration detained great deals of unaccompanied kids inside chain link fences in2014 Images that flowed online of children in cages during the height of Trump’s family separations controversy were actually from 2014 when President Barack Obama remained in office.
Children are placed in such areas by age and sex for security factors and are held for approximately 72 hours by the Border Patrol.
The Department of Homeland Security inspector basic checked out five detention centers for unaccompanied kids on the Texas border with Mexico in late June, throughout the height of the furor over household separations, and discovered they appeared to abide by detention standards. The federal government guard dog reported that tidiness was inconsistent however that the children had access to toilets, food, beverages, clean bed linen and health items.
At the height of the household separations, about 2,400 kids were separated. Given that then, 118 kids were separated. Immigration authorities are permitted to take a kid from a moms and dad in specific cases– severe criminal charges versus a parent, issues over the health and well-being of a kid or medical concerns.
That policy has actually long been in location and is separate from the now-suspended zero-tolerance Trump administration policy that saw kids separated from parents just because they had actually crossed unlawfully.
TRUMP: “African-American, Hispanic-American and Asian-American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever tape-recorded.”
THE FACTS: What he’s not saying is that the joblessness rates for all three groups have gone up given that reaching record low levels.
Black unemployment reached a record low, 5.9 percent, in May, however rose to 6.8 percent in January.
Latino joblessness was up to 4.4 percent, its least expensive ever, last October, and Asian joblessness fell to a record low of 2.2 percent in May. However Latino and Asian joblessness likewise have actually increased, in part due to the fact that of the federal government shutdown, which raised joblessness last month.
The African-American rate is still almost double the unemployed rate for whites, at 3.5 percent.
The most remarkable drop in black unemployment came under Obama, when it fell from a recession high of 16.8 percent in March 2010 to 7.8 percent in January 2017.
HUMAN BEING TRAFFICKING
TRUMP: “Human traffickers and sex traffickers make the most of the large open locations between our ports of entry to smuggle countless girls and females into the United States and to offer them into prostitution and modern-day slavery.”
THE TRUTHS: His administration has not provided evidence that women and girls are smuggled by the “thousands” across remote locations of the border for these purposes. What has been established is almost 80 percent of global trafficking victims cross through legal ports of entry, a circulation that would not be come by a border wall.
Trump distorts how frequently trafficking victims come from the southern border, according the Counter-Trafficking Data Collaborative, an international center for trafficking data with data contributed by companies from around the globe.
The National Human Trafficking Hotline, a venture supported by federal cash and run by the anti-trafficking group Polaris, started tracking private victim records in2015 From January through June 31, 2018, it tracked 35,000 potential victims. Of those, there was a near equal circulation in between immigrants on one hand and U.S. people and legal irreversible homeowners on the other.
Most of the labor trafficking victims were foreign, and the majority of the sex trafficking victims were U.S. people. Of foreign nationals, Mexico had the most regularly trafficked.
TRUMP: “In simply over 2 years since the election, we have introduced an extraordinary financial boom– a boom that has seldom been seen before. There’s been nothing like it. … A financial wonder is taking location in the United States.”
THE FACTS: The president is significantly exaggerating what has actually been a moderate improvement in growth and hiring. The economy is healthy but not nearly one of the finest in U.S. history.
The economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.8 percent last spring and summer, a strong rate. However it was just the fastest in 4 years. In the late 1990 s, growth topped 4 percent for four straight years, a level it has actually not yet reached under Trump. And development even reached 7.2 percent in 1984.
Practically all independent economists anticipate slower development this year as the result of the Trump administration’s tax cuts fade, trade tensions and slower global growth hold back exports, and higher rates of interest make it more pricey to obtain to buy cars and trucks and houses.
TRUMP: “We have released a transformation in American energy – the United States is now the No. 1 producer of oil and gas worldwide.”
THE FACTS: Real, if “we” implies Trump and his recent predecessors. It’s not all to Trump’s credit. The federal government states the U.S. became the world’s top natural gas manufacturer in 2013, under the Obama administration.
The U.S. now leads the world in oil production, too, under Trump. That’s mostly due to the fact that of a boom in production from shale oil, which likewise began under Obama.
Associated Press writers Hope Yen, Josh Boak, Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Ellen Knickmeyer, Jill Colvin and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and Elliot Spagat in San Diego added to this report.
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